Fecundity | Independent, evidence-based inquiry

The Fallacy of Generic Thinking

March 4, 2022
5,561 words (~27 minutes) Tags: fallacies statistics psychology philosophy third-person

Generic thinking is unquantified belief about large populations of individuals, a profound and terribly mistaken fallacy that has little use other than prejudice. This article discusses two kinds of generic thinking: generic generalizations and generic comparisons. The former is explored by way of prior academic research, and the latter is explored by way of numerical examples. A straightforward solution is proposed for both: beliefs about large numbers of individuals should be quantified.

Anecdotes Are Not Evidence

January 31, 2021
7,817 words (~39 minutes) Tags: fallacies statistics psychology third-person

While alluding to valuable criticism, the maxim “anecdotes are not evidence” is insufficient to describe the evidentiary uses and misuses of anecdotes. This article elucidates the flaws of anecdotal evidence that preclude anecdotes from being informative regarding inferences about larger populations or about cause and effect. It goes on to explore valid uses of anecdotal evidence, such as in investigation of specific incidents, while advising – in light of the findings of psychology regarding the fallibility of memory – scrutiny of anecdotes even in cases in which they are useful.

About

My name is Joshua Born. I am an M.S.-level statistician and amateur social scientist. I would have liked to have been a professional scientist, but for many years I worked a previous career as a software developer, tried out different things, etc. etc., and life passed me by.

This blog is an outlet for me to explore my own interests in my personal time, including research interests. Most of my research interests pertain to contraception, alloparenting, and abortion. I also write about fallacies in how people think about social issues.